As the state agency tasked with overseeing California’s multi-decade transition to a cleaner energy economy, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) certainly has a big job.

But that big job only gets harder if it’s based on flawed assumptions.

Take EV charging costs. CARB says the “average price” of electricity in California is 18 cents per kilowatt hour, and uses that figure when comparing the cost of charging an EV against buying fuel.

But even off-peak charging rates for San Diego Gas & Electric customers surpass 30 cents per kilowatt hour while Pacific Gas & Electric’s overnight charging rates are up to double CARB’s estimate.

For those without a home charging option, the average Level 3 public station in California costs 51 cents per kilowatt hour – nearly three times higher than CARB assumes.

CARB also claims that “Electric car charging is easy.” Los Angeles Times climate reporter Russ Mitchell would beg to differ, writing in September 2024:

“Two years ago in September, I borrowed a Ford F150 Lightning electric pickup truck and drove it from Berkeley to Los Angeles down Interstate 5. The truck was great. The charging experience? Miserable. Chargers out of order. Long waits for the ones that worked. False promises about how fast a car battery could be filled.

Last month, I took the same trip … The charging experience this time around? Not much change over the past two years. Chargers out of order. Long waits for the ones that worked. False promises about how fast a car battery could be filled.”

California’s EV charging challenges are not just anecdotal. Pointing to a 2022 study conducted by UC Berkeley researchers, CalMatters reports: “For years, the reliability of charging networks has been a well-documented problem.”

Finally, CARB’s guiding document – the 2022 Scoping Plan for Achieving Carbon Neutrality – assumes a 25% reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by 2030 but offers no comprehensive plan for achieving that objective.

Last month, a CARB official conceded that the state is not on track to reach its VMT goals. Another CARB Board Member put it concisely: “The VMT is not on track and that’s a fact.” Perhaps this is what should be expected from a plan that’s “fundamentally based on hope.”

Tasked with transforming how the world’s fifth largest economy produces and consumes energy, there is no doubt that CARB has a difficult job.

But the agency’s sharp departure from reality on key transition dynamics certainly doesn’t bode well.