In his nearly six years in office, Governor Newsom has aggressively moved to shut down oil production in California. Statewide production has fallen by more than one-third under his watch.
Make no mistake – the declines are the direct result of state policies. Newsom’s government issued just 24 new drilling permits in 2023 – a 99% decline from the 2,004 issued in 2020. At the current pace of decline, California oil production will be effectively eliminated within a matter of years.
As the California Energy Commission’s Transportation Fuels Assessment recently reported:
“Even under the most aggressive scenario transition to ZEVs, millions of petroleum-fueled vehicles are anticipated to remain on California’s roads and highways beyond 2035 … Gasoline is likely to remain the leading transportation fuel for at least a decade.”
So then, what happens if California still demands lots of gasoline and other transportation fuels, but has shut down its capacity to produce the oil needed for those fuels?
Herein lies a massive flaw in Newsom’s crusade to shut down in-state oil production: California may not have the infrastructure to meet gasoline demand with imported crude.
Californians should be alarmed. After all, Newsom is demanding a dramatic shift in the gasoline supply chain, but we may not have the necessary port capacity, coastal storage, pipelines, or refinery facilities to execute it.
Even the state’s carbon neutrality roadmap recognizes the infrastructure challenges related to a higher dependence on crude imports. The California Air Resources Board’s 2022 Scoping Plan states:
“Any increases in imported crude above historic levels would result in increased deliveries through the marine ports. This increased activity could require more infrastructure to store and move larger volumes of crude to the refineries in state.”
Will Newsom – so focused on production shutdowns – recognize this reality, and rush his government to permit major new fossil fuel infrastructure to support his legacy of foreign oil dependence?
And do oil companies – longtime targets of Newsom’s ire – have any reason to invest in new assets for a state that is moving so aggressively to put them out of business?
The tension between Newsom’s blind shutdown aspirations and the hard infrastructure realities on the ground signals a stunning lack of foresight in California energy policies.
If continued, Newsom’s shutdown agenda could leave California with no way to process adequate amounts of crude to meet in-state gasoline demands – leading to more supply shocks and price spikes that Californians can’t afford.
